相關(guān)閱讀延伸：2025年巴黎FIE展會之乳清蛋白篇

作者：貝瑞克公司

2025 Paris FIE Exhibition: Whey Protein Special Chapter

2025年12月2號到4號，第30屆FIE（歐洲食品配料展）在巴黎舉行。恰逢25年收官之月，我們也想深入了解歐洲市場的第一手情況，在三天時間里，我們拜訪了展會上的絕大多數(shù)乳清蛋白參展商，先將信息匯總給各位讀者，以供參考。

The 30th Fi Europe (Food Ingredients Europe) was held in Paris from December 2 to 4, 2025. As the closing month of 2025, this timing presented an ideal opportunity for us to gain in-depth, first-hand insights into the European market. Over the three-day exhibition, we visited most of the whey protein exhibitors. We have compiled the key information below for readers' reference.

1、歐洲一線品牌、wheyco、阿拉、穆勒、菲仕蘭、BMI、milei等的WPC80產(chǎn)品，26年1季度的期貨均已售磬，二線品牌波蘭大M、polmlek等一季度也僅有零星貨源，且報價集中在14800美金-15600美金之間，并且所有品牌方，對于26年2季度的漲價意愿強(qiáng)烈，大多數(shù)廠家告訴我們，他們2季度的產(chǎn)能已經(jīng)預(yù)售了70%-80%。

For WPC80 products from major European brands such as Wheyco, Arla, Müller, Friesland Campina, BMI, and Milei, futures contracts for Q1 2026 have been fully sold out. Among second-tier brands, Poland’s Mlekovita and Polmlek have only limited supplies available for Q1, with quotations ranging from USD 14,800 to USD 15,600 per metric ton. Additionally, all brands are strongly inclined to raise prices for Q2 2026, and most manufacturers indicated that 70%-80% of their production capacity for Q2 has already been pre-sold.

分離乳清蛋白的供應(yīng)相比濃縮乳清蛋白更為緊張，價格大多上漲到26000美金/噸以上，美國買家?guī)缀踬I遍了市場上所有可以銷售的WPI產(chǎn)品，現(xiàn)貨市場一柜難求。

The supply of whey protein isolate (WPI) is even tighter than that of whey protein concentrate (WPC). Prices have mostly surged above USD 26,000 per metric ton, as U.S. buyers have purchased nearly all available WPI products on the market. The spot market is facing a severe shortage, making it nearly impossible to secure a full container of inventory.

2、美國廠家本次參展不多，只有格蘭比亞等少數(shù)幾家參展，但他們的影響無處不在。所有的廠家都在跟我們分享來自美國的巨額采購需求。據(jù)了解，美國大多數(shù)廠家的2季度產(chǎn)能都已預(yù)售完畢，美國買家缺貨到甚至接受了歐洲一線品牌WPC80超過16000美金的二季度報價。美國從之前乳清蛋白全球價格洼地轉(zhuǎn)換到高地，讓人不禁感慨行情的瘋狂。

While U.S. manufacturers had a limited presence at the exhibition—with only a handful of participants such as Glanbia—their influence was ubiquitous. All exhibitors shared with us insights into the massive procurement demand emanating from the U.S. It is understood that most U.S. manufacturers have fully pre-sold their production capacity for Q2 2026. Plagued by severe shortages, U.S. buyers have even accepted Q2 quotations for WPC80 from major European brands exceeding USD 16,000 per metric ton. The U.S., once a global price depression for whey protein, has now shifted to a price peak—serving as a stark reminder of the frantic market conditions.

Price Comparison Analysis of WPC80 Between the EU and the US (Unit: EUR per Metric Ton)

2025 WPI Prices in Europe and the United States

* 綠色曲線代表美國，藍(lán)色曲線代表歐洲。

* The green curve represents the U.S.，the blue curve represents Europe.

3、相比其他乳制品原料慘淡的行情，蛋白類產(chǎn)品可能是唯一的需求、供應(yīng)和價格同步增長、并且持續(xù)了兩年的單品。

Compared with the sluggish market conditions of other dairy ingredients, protein-based products may be the only single product category that has achieved synchronous growth in demand, supply, and prices—sustaining this momentum for two consecutive years.

所以，面對不斷刷新歷史新高的乳清蛋白報價，我們很禮貌地向國外的蛋白工廠們問了三個問題：為啥？憑啥？你想干啥？

Therefore, facing the whey protein quotations that keep surging to all-time highs, we politely posed three questions to overseas whey protein manufacturers: Why the surge? What’s the justification? What’s your market strategy ahead?

最后，我們結(jié)合了蛋白類的市場數(shù)據(jù)，還有廠家的最新答復(fù)，匯總?cè)缦?，供各位參考?

Finally, based on the protein-based market data and the latest feedback from manufacturers, we have compiled the key points below for your reference:

1、25年國內(nèi)乳清蛋白進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)圖

2025 China Whey Protein Import Data Chart

*紅色為預(yù)估數(shù)字。

* The figure in red is estimated number.

① 從進(jìn)口數(shù)據(jù)來看，9月份中國進(jìn)口數(shù)量持續(xù)下降，僅為2587噸，同比大降34%，26年全年我們預(yù)估80粉進(jìn)口額同比下降8%。

Based on import data, China’s whey protein import volume continued to decline in September, reaching only 2,587 metric tons—a sharp year-on-year drop of 34%. For the full year 2026, we project that the import value of WPC80 will decrease by 8% year-on-year.

② 在今年2-3季度，因為擔(dān)心美國關(guān)稅和后續(xù)價格的穩(wěn)定性，中國大多數(shù)買家選擇了輕倉策略，這一結(jié)果導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)4季度和明年1季度的到貨數(shù)量都不會太多，市場上絕大多數(shù)工廠，明年2季度的需求還沒有采購。我們預(yù)計，在明年1季度，國內(nèi)的缺貨程度將更加嚴(yán)重。所以，有部分的市場參與者，采購邏輯將從踩剎車轉(zhuǎn)為猛踩油門，旺盛采購需求會集中釋放，將加劇乳清蛋白明年上半年的供需矛盾。

In Q2-Q3 of this year, due to concerns over U.S. tariffs and subsequent price stability, most Chinese buyers adopted a light inventory strategy. As a result, arrival volumes in China will remain limited in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Additionally, the majority of domestic manufacturers have not yet secured procurement for their Q2 2026 demand. We project that the shortage situation in China will worsen further in Q1 2026. Consequently, some market participants will shift their procurement strategy from a cautious "brake" to an aggressive "accelerator"—robust procurement demand will be concentrically released, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance of whey protein in the first half of next year.

③ 運動營養(yǎng)和特醫(yī)渠道的新增需求，抵消了嬰配和酸奶以及乳飲料渠道的下降壓力，是國內(nèi)80粉市場主要買家，我們預(yù)估速溶型號的市場占比超過60%。

Newly added demand from the sports nutrition and medical nutrition(SMPF) channels has offset the downward pressure from the infant formula, yogurt, and dairy beverage sectors. Emerging as key buyers in China’s WPC80 market, we project that the instant grade will account for over 60% of the total market share.

2、美國乳清蛋白24-25年度產(chǎn)量及出口數(shù)量對比圖

2024-2025 U.S. Annual Production vs. Export Volume Comparison Chart of Whey Protein

① 受美國政府罷工影響，數(shù)據(jù)只更新到8月份。乳清蛋白粉25年1-8月份產(chǎn)能同比增加1.69%，出口數(shù)量同比增加10.42%。相比需求端雙位數(shù)的增加，供應(yīng)端的增長嚴(yán)重不足，導(dǎo)致了乳清蛋白產(chǎn)品價格飆升。

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the data has only been updated to August. From January to August 2025, the production capacity of whey protein powder increased by 1.69% year-on-year, while export volume rose by 10.42% year-on-year. Compared with the double-digit growth on the demand side, the growth on the supply side is severely insufficient, leading to a sharp surge in the prices of whey protein products.

② 美國的新建WPC產(chǎn)能還處于爬坡階段，不能滿足其國內(nèi)旺盛的需求，其主要乳清蛋白工廠的26年上半年產(chǎn)能均已預(yù)售出去。不足的部分甚至需要高價從歐洲和新西蘭采購，也拉高了其他產(chǎn)地生產(chǎn)者的報價心理預(yù)期。美國市場的WPC和WPI期貨報價，目前已經(jīng)超過新西蘭和歐洲市場，再一次領(lǐng)跑全球。

Newly commissioned WPC production capacity in the U.S. is still in the ramp-up phase and cannot meet the strong domestic demand. Major U.S. whey protein manufacturers have fully pre-sold their production capacity for H1 2026. The shortfall even requires procurement from Europe and New Zealand at premium prices, which has also raised the pricing expectations of producers from other origins. Currently, futures quotations for WPC and WPI in the U.S. market have surpassed those in New Zealand and Europe, leading the global market once again.

③ 在特醫(yī)和餐飲渠道，分離乳清蛋白的需求遠(yuǎn)超過濃縮乳清蛋白，利潤回報也更高（相比wpc80，分離蛋白的利潤提高了60%以上），導(dǎo)致美國工廠將更多的產(chǎn)能從WPC轉(zhuǎn)到WPI；

In the medical nutrition and food service channels, demand for WPI far exceeds that of WPC80, with significantly higher profit margins (profit margins for WPI are over 60% higher than those for WPC80). This has prompted U.S. manufacturers to shift more production capacity from WPC to WPI.

④ 美國蛋白價格高漲帶來的一個副作用就是，國內(nèi)某些代理，之前通過第三國轉(zhuǎn)口換包裝的方式，進(jìn)口原產(chǎn)地美國的乳清蛋白，以此規(guī)避中美之間的高額關(guān)稅的方式，失去了套利空間。國內(nèi)買家也失去了一個低價采購乳清蛋白來源的渠道。

A side effect of the surging U.S. protein prices is that certain domestic agents—who previously imported U.S.-origin whey protein via third-country transshipment and repackaging to evade high China-U.S. tariffs—have lost their arbitrage space. Domestic buyers have also lost a low-cost channel for procuring whey protein.

⑤ 美國市場，除了減肥神藥司美格魯肽的應(yīng)用之外，星巴克9月底在美國和加拿大市場推出了高蛋白的咖啡和奶茶，一杯額外添加15-36克的分離蛋白，據(jù)說市場大賣，每個月需要30個柜子以上的分離蛋白，將優(yōu)質(zhì)乳蛋白的應(yīng)用從特醫(yī)渠道延伸到餐飲渠道，將加劇市場的缺貨情況。

In the U.S. market, aside from the widespread use of semaglutide (the "weight-loss wonder drug"), Starbucks launched high-protein coffee and milk tea in the U.S. and Canadian markets at the end of September. Each serving contains an additional 15-36 grams of whey protein isolate (WPI), and the products have reportedly been a huge hit. With monthly demand exceeding 30 shipping containers of WPI, this has expanded the application of high-quality dairy protein from the medical nutrition channel to the foodservice channel—further exacerbating the market shortage.

3、歐洲市場WPC2024-2025年度出口統(tǒng)計圖

European Market WPC: 2024-2025 Annual Export Statistics Chart

① 歐洲25年1-8月份乳清蛋白出口為40864噸，同比減少0.41%，意味著歐洲本土的需求也在增加，可供出口的產(chǎn)能有限。

From January to August 2025, Europe's whey protein exports reached 40,864 metric tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.41%. This indicates that domestic demand in Europe is also on the rise, resulting in limited exportable capacity.

② 歐洲主要WPC80工廠，受目前蛋白類產(chǎn)品的高利潤吸引，目前有兩個趨勢：第一、以BMI為代表的企業(yè)，26年將繼續(xù)縮小乳清粉的生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，將有限的乳清液，用于擴(kuò)大WPC80的產(chǎn)能，第二、以wheyco為代表的企業(yè)，將更多產(chǎn)能用于附加值更高的蛋白類產(chǎn)品，比如零乳糖乳清蛋白、乳脂球膜蛋白、分離蛋白類產(chǎn)品，而減少普通型號的乳清蛋白產(chǎn)品；

Driven by the high profits of protein-based products, major European WPC80 manufacturers are showing two key trends: First, companies represented by BMI will continue to reduce whey powder production scale in 2026, allocating limited whey liquid to expand WPC80 capacity. Second, enterprises led by Wheyco will pert more capacity to higher-value-added protein products—such as lactose-free whey protein, milk fat globule membrane protein (MFGM), and whey protein isolate (WPI)—while cutting output of standard-grade whey protein.

③ 相比美國同行，歐洲工廠對待本次乳清蛋白行情，在工廠投資上大多數(shù)還是保持了克制，并沒有激進(jìn)的增加產(chǎn)能，更多了選擇了內(nèi)部優(yōu)化產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)，以實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)品利潤回報最大化。

Compared with their U.S. counterparts, most European manufacturers have exercised restraint in factory investment amid the current whey protein market trend. Instead of aggressively expanding capacity, they have opted to optimize internal product mix to maximize product profit returns.

4、新西蘭市場最新情況

New Zealand Market: 2024-2025 Latest Updates Situation

① 恒天然依然保持了少量多次的投放節(jié)奏，其最新26年一季度的速溶型號WPC80投標(biāo)中，面對全球投放了4個柜的速溶，據(jù)傳最后以15100美金以上的價格成交。與歐美價格保持了一致。熱穩(wěn)型號因需求不及速溶型號，成交價格稍低于速溶型號。

Fonterra has maintained its "small-batch, frequent release" strategy. In its latest tender for WPC80 instant for Q1 2026, the company offered 4 shipping containers of the instant product globally, reportedly closing at a price exceeding USD 15,100 per metric ton—aligned with European and U.S. market prices. Due to lower demand compared to the instant grade, the transaction price of the heat-stable grade is slightly lower.

我們總結(jié)一下，本輪蛋白持續(xù)上漲的行情，是由美國的內(nèi)需強(qiáng)力拉動，并且從運動營養(yǎng)、特醫(yī)渠道（司美格魯肽）甚至擴(kuò)散到茶飲渠道，乳清蛋白作為乳制品原料中為數(shù)不多的功能性食品，在本輪價格上漲趨勢中，也為更多消費者所熟知和認(rèn)可。其原料來源的天然受限，導(dǎo)致其供應(yīng)無法像其他乳制品原料可以快速增量。其不受全球鮮奶產(chǎn)能短期過剩的影響，也不再受中美關(guān)稅沖突的影響。我們在最新幾期行情分析文章中，一直建議各位，相比于價格回落的風(fēng)險，供應(yīng)的風(fēng)險更不可控，分步建倉是最優(yōu)解。我們這一建議，將繼續(xù)延順到明年2季度底。

To summarize, the ongoing upward trend in protein prices is strongly driven by robust U.S. domestic demand, with applications expanding from sports nutrition and medical nutrition channels (fueled by semaglutide) to even the tea beverage sector. As one of the few functional foods among dairy ingredients, whey protein has gained wider recognition among consumers amid this price rally. Its naturally constrained raw material sources mean supply cannot be rapidly increased like other dairy ingredients. Unaffected by short-term surpluses in global raw milk production capacity or China-U.S. tariff frictions, the market maintains unique resilience. In our recent market analysis reports, we have consistently advised that supply risks are more uncontrollable than the risk of price declines, making phased position building the optimal strategy. This recommendation will remain in effect until the end of Q2 2026.

同時，我們也在思考，在這次持續(xù)將近兩年，目前來看短期也不會降溫的瘋狂行情中，頂部究竟在哪里？是供需達(dá)到平衡嗎？還是在蛋白類的應(yīng)用擴(kuò)大到運動營養(yǎng)、特醫(yī)渠道、甚至延伸到餐飲這一新情況，所有的生產(chǎn)端都在狂歡；但消費者們，究竟愿意為健康和美麗，承受多大的代價？

Meanwhile, we are also contemplating: amid this ongoing market frenzy which has lasted nearly two years and shows no signs of abating in the short term, where does the peak truly lie? Will it be when supply and demand reach equilibrium? Or will it be amid the new landscape where the application of protein-based products has expanded to sports nutrition, medical nutrition channels, and even extended to the foodservice sector—with all producers riding a wave of optimism? Yet, how much cost are consumers truly willing to bear for health and beauty?

行情再高總有頂點，風(fēng)險隨著高度一直在累積。是像遠(yuǎn)處的艾爾菲鐵塔見好就收，完美落幕；還是像近處的高樓，最高處也可能是高位接盤，一地狼藉。買或者不買，都是問題。

No matter how high the market rally climbs, there is always a peak—and risks have been mounting as it ascends. Will it conclude perfectly like the distant Eiffel Tower, where investors cash in at the right moment and bow out gracefully? Or will it resemble the nearby high-rises, where the top floor may also mean catching the market peak, leaving buyers stuck with heavy losses in a messy aftermath? To buy or not to buy—either way, it’s a dilemma.

備注：本文所有內(nèi)容為作者個人觀點，僅作行業(yè)交流學(xué)習(xí)用，勿做商業(yè)用途，不構(gòu)成任何投資建議，感謝各位同行專家在本文撰寫過程中給予的資訊和意見支持！

Note: All content in this article represents the author's personal views. It is intended solely for industry exchange and learning purposes, shall not be used for commercial purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. We would like to thank all peer experts for their information and opinions provided during the writing of this article!

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